What's happening in the Oʻahu housing market right now?
The Oʻahu housing market split in two in September 2026. Single-family homes are selling fast and holding firm on price, with a median of just 16 days on market, while condos have more inventory and more time on the clock. House sales rose 6.2% to 293 homes, and condo sales fell 8.1% to 375. The national "fall price drop" headline doesn't describe either one.
By Marina Tolentino | October 23, 2026
If you've been reading that the housing market is cooling off, here's the part the mainland headlines leave out: Hawaiʻi runs on a year-round market. Yes, PCS season tapers off, and things slow a little between now and February. But they don't screech to a halt, because people who have to sell still sell.
So the question isn't "is the market up or down?" It's "which market are you in?" Here's how I break it down for the buyers and sellers I work with.
Watch Marina compare the mainland fall slowdown to Hawaiʻi at 0:53.
Nationally, fall means longer days on market and price cuts that peak at around 17% of listings. On Oʻahu, the numbers tell a different story:
- 16 days: median days on market for single-family homes, down from 26 a year ago.
- 31%: share of single-family homes that sold over original asking price, up from 25%.
- Roughly 3 to 4 times faster: how much quicker Oʻahu houses are moving than the national fall average of about 58 days.
Inventory is flat at 798 homes for sale, and new listings are down 1.8%. In plain English, what sells is being replaced, and it's still moving. Watch Marina walk through the single-family numbers at 4:02.
Here's what that looks like on the ground. I recently worked with buyers who flew out twice to shop in the $950,000 to $1.1 million range. Homes they saw on the first trip were sold by the time they landed on the second. Sometimes there were multiple offers within two days of a listing going live.
The homes that moved fastest were flipped or fully renovated. The ones that sat for 50 to 70 days were the mid-range homes with problems you can't see in photos — a roof that needs replacing, a rusted hot water tank, wood rot on the siding. When that's a $30,000 to $50,000 surprise on a million-dollar home, buyers hesitate, and many sellers still won't budge on price. That's a big reason some homes sit while others vanish.
Why did the median price drop if prices didn't?
The median house price on Oʻahu fell 3.9%, from about $1.155 million to $1.11 million. That doesn't mean homes lost that much value. The median is just the middle number, and the middle moved because the mix of sales changed.
The fastest-growing price band was $900,000 to $999,000, which jumped from 26 sales to 42. About 39% of house sales were under $1 million. More sales at the lower end pull the middle down without a single home getting cheaper.
Think of it like coffee. If more people buy medium coffees instead of large, the price of coffee didn't drop. More medium coffees just got sold. Watch Marina explain the median price drop at 7:45.
Year to date, the house median is actually up 3.2% to about $1.173 million, and appraisals are still coming in strong. Home values are holding on Oʻahu.
Not sure which side of this split you're on? In a free 15-minute consultation, we'll look at your price range, your timeline, and whether you're shopping in the fast lane or the slow one. Book your free 15-minute call here.
Condos are a different story
Here, condos are the starter home. Almost nobody on Oʻahu buys their first home as a single-family house, so this is where first-time buyers and military families tend to shop.
And this is where the numbers soften:
- Condo pending sales dropped 28.6%, from 409 to 292.
- The steepest drop was in the $400,000 to $599,000 range, down 37.2%.
- There are 2,509 condo listings right now, and 1,196 of them are under $500,000.
- Median days on market is 41, compared with 40 a year ago.
That's not a crash. The condo median is still up 2.8% from last year. Well-priced condos are still selling. Buyers just have more choices and more time. Watch Marina break down the condo market at 9:21.
If you're buying a condo, especially if you're PCSing, this is your negotiating window. Time is on your side and so is inventory. You don't have to rush into an offer the day you see a place. (You still don't want to insult the seller, but you can be choosy.) If you're curious what new-construction condos in Hoʻopili look like at current prices, our Uluwehi Hoʻopili upstairs condo tour shows what $635K buys.
What's happening in West Oʻahu and Hoʻopili?
The West Side is its own marketplace, and it's still moving. In September, Alana at Hoʻopili was the number two most-sold condo complex on the island with six sales, and Kāpili at Hoʻopili tied for third with five. ʻAhakea in Hoʻopili had ten single-family sales at a median of $797,000.
The Leeward year-to-date house median is $910,000, the lowest of any Oʻahu region. It's up from $855,000 in 2023. The West Side condo median is $603,000. Farther out, Mākaha had eight house sales at a $639,000 median, and Māʻili had ten sales at about $600,000.
The Leeward region made up 24% of all island sales, with 169 sales in September, second only to Honolulu. If you're buying for the long haul or investing, that matters. More transactions means more buyers when it's time to sell. Watch Marina cover West Oʻahu and Hoʻopili at 11:23. For the area itself, our guide to living in Kapolei covers who it fits and who it doesn't.
What does this mean if you're selling or buying?
If you're selling a house
Price it right from day one. If you're listing above about $1.1 million, don't price high and plan to come down. That's an overpriced listing, and it's one of the most common mistakes I see.
The first two to three weeks online are when you get the most attention, so make them count. That means broker opens, open houses, and giving buyers a reason to walk through the door. It also means letting your neighbors know your house is for sale, because they're often the ones who tell friends and family about a place to live nearby.
Plenty of Hawaiʻi owners are sitting on a lot of equity, so many sellers don't have to panic-sell, and they won't. That's why some will wait for the right buyer rather than lower the price. If you're thinking about trading up, our guide to moving up from your first home in Hawaiʻi walks through the numbers. Watch Marina explain the seller strategy at 13:40.
If you're buying a house
Don't expect a national-style fall discount. Sellers know what their homes are worth, and appraisals are backing them up. I've had a buyer insist on an offer well under asking, and I presented it, as their agent should. The listing agent's response was that the seller wouldn't entertain it, and to come back with a different offer. Many won't even counter.
What I see working for clients is the opposite approach: an offer at or slightly over list price, paired with a request for a seller credit toward closing costs or an interest rate buydown. Rates and credit options vary, so confirm current numbers with your lender before you plan around them. Watch Marina cover how to write an offer right now at 16:18.
If you're buying a condo
Take your time and use your leverage. Make a respectful offer, ask for what matters to you, and remember that well-priced condos still sell. You're not competing the way a house buyer is.
There's a lot of market gossip out there, the kind you hear at dinner when everyone's debating headlines. It's mostly assumptions and speculation, and it can push you into a bad decision or leave you on the bench while good opportunities pass by. Data first.
If you're deciding whether to buy, sell, or wait, book a free 15-minute call with me. We'll look at where you are now, where you want to be, and what the numbers in your price range actually say. Book your free 15-minute consultation here.
About Marina Tolentino
Marina Tolentino is a real estate agent serving the Oahu area. She has helped over 100 first-time buyers and growing families feel confident about finding homes that fit their lives, and shares practical market insights through her YouTube channel and blog. Connect with Marina at https://marinatolentino.com.
